Neutrino Oscillation Domain

Well down the NameBio daily domain name sales report for August 1, 2018, the name NeutrinoOscillation.org attracted my attention. The domain sold for $240 Aug. 1, 2018  at DropCatch. So what is a neutrino oscillation, why would anyone want the domain name, and what is the history of the associated website?

Scientific Background

So what is with neutrino oscillations?

What we now call the neutrino was proposed by the great physicist Enrico Pauli in 1930 on the basis of theoretical arguments to explain observed radioactive beta decay.  At that time he actually referred to it as the neutron, since it is electrically neutral.  But when that name was claimed for the much more massive particle we now call the neutron, the name neutrino (means little neutral one) came to be used for the particle, which was experimentally proven in 1956.  You can read more of the interesting history here.

The neutrino comes in multiple types, the electron, tau and muon neutrino. There are three corresponding antimatter particles, bringing the total number of types of neutrinos to six. Conservation laws prescribe the type of neutrino that a nuclear reaction will produce.

When scientists used the energy output of the sun to predict the rate of nuclear reactions taking place in the core, they could predict how many should be produced and it was trivial to calculate the neutrino flux here at Earth. The number is huge - during the past second something like 100 trillion neutrinos passed through your body.

While neutrinos are challenging to detect because they go right through most material without interaction, clever experimental physicists have figured out how to detect a neutrino, with several major facilities developed around the world, included SNO (Sudbury Neutrino Observatory) here in Canada. The early results indicated a substantially lower flux of the predicted type of neutrino than predicted.  This was called the solar neutrino problem or paradox (see account here).

The puzzle might imply that the nuclear reactions in the core of the sun were at a lower rate, the sun had essentially slowed down for some reason.  Since it takes a long period for energy produced in the core to reach the outer layers of the sun, this would be possible.  Another possibility is that we simply misunderstand the nuclear reactions in some fundamental way.

But the answer that turned out to be right is that the neutrino, or some of them, can change from one type to another, and this is what explained the differences in flux observed.  There is excellent coverage of the history and science of neutrino oscillations on Wikipedia.

The Nobel Prize in Physics in 2015  was awarded jointly to Takaaki Kajita of the
Super-Kamiokande Collaboration in Japan and Arthur B. McDonald of the Sudbury Neutrino Observatory Collaboration in Canada "for their key contributions to the experiments which demonstrated that neutrinos change identities."  You can read the Nobel Prize citation here,

History of the Site

The domain name has been registered since 2001, and has been web active since 2002 (note that its first registration whois data do not show this, but the web archive does, so I presume that it formally expired and its time was reset.)  The domain name has been used with a widely used and authoritative reference site with links to various articles, experiments, groups, etc. working in the neutrino oscillation field.  For example, below is a screen capture of how the site looked in 2004, obtained courtesy of the Internet Archive Wayback Machine.

It was maintained by a scientific researcher at Argonne National Lab. The site was widely used in the early years, even winning a hot pick award from Science Magazine back in 1998.  The activity on the site waned somewhat for a period, but by 2017 it was still essentially serving the same role, but with a refreshed visual look, as shown in the archive capture from 2017.

Closing Thoughts

Up to the time of posting I was not able to get confirmation from those buying or selling the domain name regarding future plans. Since it sold on DropCatch, it is likely that the domain name was simply allowed to lapse, hopefully deliberately. The domain name does not currently resolve (as of late August 2018 at least).  I think it has been held by someone other than the original owners for the past year. My guess is that the site had a sufficient number of backlinks that someone thought that at this price it would generate enough revenue through monetized parking to make the $240 purchase price sensible. I guess we will see if that turns out, although I personally would be doubtful with such a specialized term. Another possibility is that the new owner is associated with the scientific field, and has plans to re-establish a site in its historical tradition.

While the users of the site over many years will be disappointed by the end of an authoritative and useful reference site,  most reference sites eventually come to the end of their life, either because those who maintained them have moved on to other things, or because demand for the service has diminished. Perhaps, now that the solar neutrino mystery has been largely solved, and a Nobel Prize  awarded for the work, it was felt that this was a good time to move on to other efforts. Nevertheless, the scientific community should express thanks to those who maintained the site over so many years.

Like this post?  You might also be interested in our examination of the sale of the BullAtomSci.org domain name.

Links:

• NameBio report of NeutrinoOscillations.org sale
• Neutrino Proposal and Discovery
• Neutrino Types and Research
• Neutrino Oscillations on Wikipedia
• How many neutrinos pass through your body?
• Sudbury Neutrino Observatory (SNO)
• Nobel Prize  Physics 2015 citation
• Wayback Machine Internet Archive
• Argonne National Lab
• Sale of BullAtomSci.org domain name
• NameBio Daily Reports
• Our site NamesThat.win - thanks for visiting
• Permanent link to this blog post

Original post Aug 26, 2018.


Fine Print

This post is offered for informational and educational purposes only, and should not be considered domain name investment advice. While an attempt has been made to be accurate, there is no implied or explicit warranty, and you are responsible for verifying any information of importance to you.

I try to be fair, balanced and objective in my analysis.  If you feel this post does not meet that standard, please express your concerns to me.  As disclosure, I do have a domain portfolio that is predominantly ngTLD domain names, although I do also own a number of .com, .ca, .co and a few other country code extension domains..

In a few cases there may be affiliate links will on this blog. This means I receive a small amount if users visit or make purchases via the link. You do not pay any additional charge due to using an affiliate link, and in some cases below the normal price. I receive no identifying information about who clicks, or does not click, any link. I never accept compensation to provide favourable review of any particular service or product.

The text of this posting is ©R.L. Hawkes, all rights reserved. However, you may, without permission, use reasonable length portions of the post as long as a link to this post is also provided. If you wish to use the complete contents of a post, please request permission. I am normally open to reprinting, but will consider each request individually. 

The images used are either those associated with a product or service, my own images, or Pixabay images believed to be available for use without attribution. If you see any image that you believe is problematic, please let us know and we will immediately correct the situation.

BullAtomSci.org Sale

I notice on today's NameBio daily domain sales report that the domain name BullAtomSci in the .org extension sold yesterday.  The name attracted my attention, because I know very well of the valuable work of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

What is The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists?

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists are best known for maintaining the Doomsday Clock, which is an indication of global dangers.  The clock, started during the cold war period in 1947, is currently set at 2 minutes to midnight. The group periodically assess all types of risks and update the setting on the clock.

They also publish a journal, with the organization and publication started by biophysicist Eugene Rabinowitch and physicist Hyman Goldsmith.  Many prominent scientists (and other academics and thinkers) have contributed to the journal over the years including (among many others) Hans Bethe, Max Born, Albert Einstein, J. Robert Oppenheimer, Bertrand Russell, and Edward Teller.

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists cover a variety of articles on different types of threats, from nuclear weapons to climate change to biochemical or biological. A couple of years ago the publication of The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists started being published in partnership with Routledge, Francis and Taylor Group.

The Domain Name BullAtomSci.Org

The domain name that just sold, BullAtomSci.org,  has been registered for 21 years.  Originally it was certainly used by The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists as this capture using the internet archive WayBack Machine from 2006 shows.

In 1999 the domain name TheBulletin.org was registered, and for the past decade it has been used by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.  It is a highly visited and respected site, placing in the top 500,000 sites in the world (from a total of about 1.9 billion sites in the world).  I suspect that the rebranding was related to the movement away from a narrow prior focus on nuclear weapon risk to a more general consideration of multiple global risks.

Now I am not clear exactly when, or how, the organization gave up or lost control of their original domain name, but as this WayBack Machine capture from September 2017 shows, over the last few years although the site used the title of The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists in the heading, it clearly has nothing to do with the organization really.

Traffic was modest during the last year on the BullAtomSci.org website, and estimated ad revenue for the site small, according to sources such as CuteStat.com. I presume whoever held the domain name felt that it was more profitable to try to sell it, which has now happened.  The really interesting question is whether the buyer is the previous owner, the real Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, or someone else.  If someone else, what do they plan to do with the domain name? Or was it simply purchased by a domain investor hoping to resell the name?

Domain Sale and Lessons Learned

This saga demonstrates the dangers of not protecting your previous domain name when you rebrand to a new site. I am surprised that the obvious attempt of an unrelated owner to benefit from the name was not legally challenged (if it was not).  There are annual renewal costs off maintaining a domain name you no longer actively use, but letting go of a name with traffic comes with lost opportunity costs.

The domain name BullAtomSci.org sold July 29, 2018 on GoDaddy for $820.  In the NameBio database, there are no publicly recorded previous sales of the domain name, although when one uses the GoDaddy GoValue estimation tool it shows (without date) a previous sale at a price of $980.  For those reading this from outside the domain community, there is no requirement to publicly announce sales prices of domain names, so the public record is an incomplete one in most cases. Many sales are announced however, with sources such as NameBio including more than $1.6 billion in domain name sales.

I don't know the full story behind the most recent domain name sale, and with the new privacy legislation it is harder to track domain name owners.   If you are associated with either party in the sale, and want to provide additional details on the transaction and future plans, please contact me directly or share information through the comments section of this blog.

Update

The domain name now resolves to a monetized links parking page.  It does not specifically mention that the domain name is for sale. According to ICANN WHOIS the new owner is a privately held Hong Kong based holding company.

Main Links:

• The sale of BullAtomSci.org domain name at NameBio database
• Current home of Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
• About Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (Wikipedia)
• WayBack Machine archive
• GoDaddy GoValue 
• NamesThat.win 
• Direct link to this article

This article was originally posted on July 30,2018.
The update section at the end of the article was added on Aug 6, 2018

Small Print:  

This post is offered for information and education purposes only, and is offered without implied or explicit warranty of any kind.  While an effort has been made to be accurate, users should independently confirm any information important to them.  We have no association with any party covered in this article.

This post is one in a series offered by NamesThat.win, a site offering good value in creative engaging domain names for use in domain phrase marketing campaigns or websites. We concentrate mainly on the fields of biotechnology, education, healthy living,  medicine, nanotechnology, science, startups, technology and names for writers and books.  We offer names in various new and legacy global extensions, and a handful of country code extensions particularly .ca. 

Domain name investing contains risks, and any who engage in it are responsible for their own decisions, and should, as appropriate, obtain professional guidance. If there are any corrections to this post, we encourage you to let us know. 

How Many Domain Names Does the World Really Need?

Note: The official version of this white paper is available here.  While the one shown below is substantially similar, it is the website version that will be updated to reflect any additions or corrections, and we suggest that you use it for reference purposes.

It is easy to find how many domain names are currently registered. An interesting question to ask is how that compares to the number of domain names that are needed globally. While it is not possible to calculate a precise number, we can make an educated estimate. We provide that analysis in this paper.  This gives us an indication of the growth prospects for the domain name industry, including what component of the market are likely to see the most growth. This analysis may also help inform whether additional new global top level domains (gTLDs) are needed.

How Many Businesses Globally

We start with the premise that the majority of domain names will be utilized by businesses. The number of companies registered on the major stock exchanges is only about 50,000 (you can see the statistics from the largest stock exchanges here).  But most businesses are small and private, not registered on any stock exchange, so we must dig a little deeper for the relevant number of businesses.

For many countries information on how many businesses are registered (at different dates) is given in this resource from the World Bank. For example, in 2007 (the last date with data provided) there were 2.5 million businesses registered in Canada.  In 2005, the last year with data for the United States in the directory, there were 5.2 million businesses registered there, while the United Kingdom had 2.5 million businesses registered in 2007. The population of Canada in 2007 was about 33 million, the USA in 2005 about 300 million, and the UK in 2007 about 61 million. These data suggest a ratio of one registered business per 12 to 60 people.

It is likely the ratio will be less in developing countries, but the goal of this analysis is to predict the number of domain names needed in the medium term future, when development levels become more equal.

If we take the larger value, and assume it could be applied to the entire world population, this would suggest that, with a global population of about 7 billion people, the number of businesses globally might be about 120 million.

Alternative Method

We could estimate the number of businesses in the world another way.  It might be argued that the number of businesses should scale as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), rather than according to population.  Data on the GDP of different economies is given here.  Applying this method, the Canadian economy represents about 2.3% of the world total, so if we scale the 2.5 million registered Canadian businesses to obtain an estimate of the world total number of businesses, we get about 106 million businesses globally.  If we use the USA figures of 5.2 million registered businesses in an economy that (by GDP) represents 24.7% of the global total, we scale to an estimate of about 21 million businesses globally.

These figures agree to an order of magnitude with those obtained in the previous section, although suggest a slightly lower value.  Therefore, considering both techniques, let's revise our estimate of the number of businesses worldwide to about 100 million. The advantage of the second method is that it should more properly handle the mix of developed and developing economies.

How Many Domain Names Per Business

While many businesses will use a single domain name, larger companies use additional domain names, both for different facets of the business (and/or specific product lines), and in multiple countries in which the business operates.  I could not find good statistics on the average number of domain names per business, although a response on Quora estimates that a typical large technology company owns thousands of domain names, many of them unused. A lot has been written lately about domain names owned by the Trump organization, and it appears that the number is at least 3000. Many large companies now operate in a hundred different economies, or more, and need at least that many domains to protect their brand with country specific domain name.

On the other hand, the majority of businesses are essentially a single person, or a few people, engaged in one activity, such as a local contractor or an independent professional.  Most of these need only a single domain name, or possibly two with the second used in marketing and directing to the primary company domain name.

It is probably safe to argue that the average number of domain names per business is higher than 1 and less than several thousand. I think the range is not really as wide as that though, and surely it is at least several, but on average, not more than several dozen.  Let's somewhat arbitrarily assume that the average number of domain names 'needed' per business is 10.

Number of Business Related Domain Names

If we combine data from the previous two sections it suggests that the number of business domain names needed globally would be about 10 times 100 million, or about 1 billion domain names. It should be stressed that we have implicitly assumed that businesses in all regions have reached a technical, marketing and communication stage similar to that of major developed market companies.

But What About Non-Business Domain Name Needs?

Of course many organizations that are not businesses register and need domain names - professional organizations, educational institutions, etc.  It is perhaps even more challenging to estimate this number.  One way to get an estimate is to consider the number of .org domain names relative to the number of .com.  At the current date there are about 128 million .com domain names registered, and just over 10 million .org domain names. This might suggest that the needs of other organizations is of the order of 1/10 the number of domain names needed by businesses, although other organizations disproportionately use country code and alternative gTLDs, so it is likely the 10% estimate is too small, perhaps significantly so. We will assume that organizations that are not businesses might use 20% of the number of domain names utilized by businesses. Therefore we estimate the total number of domain names needed, both for businesses and other organizations, is of the order of 1.2 billion domain names.

What About Domain Phrase Needs?

Recently there has been interest in using domain phrases in marketing campaigns and redirections. For example Names.of.London and NamesThat.win both offer these services (and undoubtedly many others as well).  It appears likely that creative uses of domain name phrases will increase significantly in the near future. Will this significantly increase the demand for domain names? The answer is probably not, since a single domain name is used with multiple first words, so the total number of new domain names is limited (essentially numerous sub-domains are used to support multiple phrases concurrently). While we see extensive growth in domain name phrase/expression use in the coming years, it will probably contribute only slightly to the total domain name market.  Nevertheless, this is an example of the use of domain names in ways that were not foreseen even a few years ago.

What About Personal Domain Names?

In the near future will most people claim a personal domain name?  If this were to happen, the potential market for domain names would be much larger, of the order of the global population of 7 billion.  Clearly at the current time many people have no ability, or interest, in acquiring and using a personal domain name.  Some promote the Montenegro country domain name (.me) as a personal website extension, and that TLD has grown in popularity driven largely by the personal domain market. There is a significant market for personal domain names, and it will probably continue to grow strongly in our opinion.  However, we do not foresee a time when essentially everyone will have a personal domain name. We estimate, somewhat arbitrarily, that perhaps 1 person in 25 globally will want and have the resources to obtain and utilize effectively a personal domain name. This would suggest a need for roughly 280 million domain names for this purpose, or the total number of domain names needed globally for all purposes would be almost 1.5 billion by our analysis so far.

Other Uses for Domain Names

Will applications for domain names emerge that we don't even foresee now? For example, will one or more large retailers assign a domain name to each individual product, or will the ISBN system assign a domain name to each book product? Will advances in biotechnology, or other areas of science, lead to big data situations which are most efficiently handled by assigning a large number of new domain names? Will the structure of the Internet of Things emerge to assign individual domain names to each connected product? It really is not possible to meaningfully estimate the domain name market related to new technologies, but it probably makes sense to include some factor even though it is highly uncertain. We arbitrarily suggest that there might be a need for 300 million new domain names for use in ways not currently conceived and related to modern science, technology and innovation. Therefore we increase the total to 1.8 billion domain names.

So How Many Domain Names are Currently Registered?

A recent report shows that the total number of domain names registered is of the order of 330 million domain names currently registered, with .com and .cn being the most widely held TLDs. Of that total, there are about  27 million new gTLD based domain names,

A good question is how many of these domain names are in active use, rather than simply being held for resale, and what fraction of these are potentially useful in meeting the market need for new domain names. One way to estimate this is to look at what fraction of domain names are parked.  Among the new gTLDs the parked fraction is typically a bit over 60%.  The parked fraction is less for country code and the traditional gTLDs. Of the 330 million registered domain names perhaps 100 million are not actively used and it could be argued that many of these will not be attractive for future use and therefore do not contribute to the future domain name need. That is, perhaps 200 million useful domain names are currently registered.

How Many New Domain Names Are Needed?

Therefore this analysis suggests that there is a need for almost 1.6 billion additional domain names. This will be driven primarily by business uses (about 60%), although non-business organizations, personal domain names, and future domain needs related to technological developments will all play significant roles. The market will decide how this need is met, through country code, traditional gTLDs, existing new gTLDs, closed TLDs, and not yet released newer gTLDs. We summarize in the next section the key results of this analysis.

Executive Summary

• We estimate the number of businesses globally currently at about 100 million.
• If on average each business utilizes 10 domain names, this suggests a business domain need for about 1 billion domain names.  
• Domain name needs of organizations that are not businesses might require about 200 million domain names, bringing the total to 1.2 billion.
• The growing tendency for personal domain names may add another few hundred million to the potential market.
• While the domain phrase/expression market will grow significantly, the total impact on number of needed domain names is limited.
• Future uses, not specifically predicted, related to advanced science, technology and commerce may add another few hundred million domain names.
• This analysis suggests that the total domain name market is about 1.8 billion domain names.
• There are currently about 330 million domain names registered, but probably only about 2/3 of those are potentially useful.
• The analysis suggests the need for about 1.6 billion new domain name registrations.
• This analysis would suggest that the number of domain names to be registered can increase from current levels by roughly a factor of 5.

Final Notes

This analysis is based on the concept of Fermi Problems, first popularized by physicist Enrico Fermi. He famously used the method to accurately estimate the number of piano tuners in the city of Chicago, and to estimate the energy of a nuclear blast from the displacement of a paper at considerable distance from the blast. The Drake equation, that estimates the number of intelligent extraterrestrial civilizations in our galaxy, is another well known application based on similar principles.

The technique cannot provide a firm number, but does provide a more reliable estimate than simply proposing a figure, and makes the assumptions of the components which go into an estimation. It would be possible to use Monte Carlo methodology, based on uncertainty estimates for each component of the analysis, to express likely uncertainty ranges in the final result. Given the difficulty in assigning the component uncertainties, I decided that at the current time the precision of the analysis does not warrant an attempt to use Monte Carlo techniques to estimate overall uncertainties.

One of the biggest uncertainties in the analysis is the number of domain names per business.  Should that number be at the lower end of our suggested range (about 2), this analysis would suggest that the total number of domain names needed is much lower, with business needs almost met by current domain name registrations.

This analysis is offered to the community without any implied or explicit warranty with respect to accuracy or applicability. We welcome comments and corrections to the analysis presented here.

The author, Dr. Robert Hawkes, MSc, PhD, P.Phys., is a physicist and author who has employed data intensive analysis techniques in physical sciences. He operates several websites, including NamesThat.win, a site specializing in science, space and technology related domain name sales and use of domain expressions for marketing.

This paper is ©R. Hawkes, all rights reserved.  If you would like to reprint the article please contact the author for permission and conditions. You may quote small sections in news or review articles without specific permission.  You may also freely link to this site without prior permission.

What is a domain name 'win'?

Earlier this year we launched our website NamesThat.Win. We wanted to take the opportunity to discuss what the word 'win' means to us in the context of a domain name and website.

We suggest the following checklist when evaluating your website and its domain name.

• The website should reflect positively on your organization. While content is clearly critical, as well as attention to detail, the impression starts with the name you adopt. Yes, the name can be catchy and even cute, but always in a tasteful way.
• Honesty is critical. The name and website should reflect what you are about in a clear way. Never use a name to try to pretend your organization and goals are something that they are not. Many will disagree, but I say don't use an .org top level domain (TLD) if you are not an organization, and don't use .com if you are not a business. I wish there were controls so that someone could not use .science if they have nothing to do with science!
• The website should be informative.  After I visit your website I should feel that my time was well spent in terms of efficient access to valid information. Even if your primary goal is to sell a product or service, your website should provide information to help a potential purchaser make an informed decision, as well as support documentation. 
• Is the website sustainable? Is it designed so that you can reasonably do what is required to keep it current? Is the total cost sustainable in terms of the value that the website brings to your organization? If you go for a premium domain or an expensive .com, can that cost be justified?  Too many people rush into owning too much home for their means, and I find some companies do the same with respect to a domain name and website. Of course many do the opposite, and a year or two later purchase a higher quality domain name and need to rebrand to the new name.
• The name should be location appropriate.  If you plan to only operate in a single country, with essentially no customers beyond the borders, it does make sense to use a country specific domain name. Research shows that these are more respected and trusted. However, if your vision extends beyond your home country, seriously consider starting with a global top level domain (gTLD), or possibly multiple domain extensions with a common first name. It will be interesting to see how the .gdn (which stands for global domain name) takes off as a general extension for those from all regions.
• Almost all websites should feel current. While achieving this will depend partly on the  design, having current content is critical. Also, start with a domain name that suggests a modern site. Some domain names just feel ordinary and old. I realize adoption has been slow, but I think that the new global top level domain extensions (ngTLD) offer real opportunities. Make social media interact smoothly with your website. For example, it is easy to have your Twitter feed display on your website.
• How memorable is you name, and in what other ways will you help people find you? A name that people can easily remember, and that is also descriptive, will go a long way in people remembering how to find you.  I think the ideal domain name is common, but not too common to lend an air of distinctiveness. If you do decide to go with a made up brandable name, you will need to figure in the costs of promoting that name.
• Think about the goals for your website. Is it primarily to sell, interact with clients, provide support, contribute to public understanding, earn advertising revenue, or make your organization better known. Make sure your website structure, and the domain name, are both congruent with these goals. If you have two or more rather different goals, you might want to think about multiple domain names to keep the separation clear.

The last point is perhaps the most important. Before you consider available domain names and how much you are willing to pay, or how you will design and host your website, start with the goals you have for your online presence.  Make a written list, and get the opinion of others, revising as appropriate. 

So why did we select  our domain name NamesThat.win? We believe in the long term value of the ngTLDs, so wanted to model one ourselves. Also, we see value in using a domain name expression as our name, and wanted to model that.  As a small operation, but with potential customers from around the world, we wanted a global TLD. Considering sustainability, the domain name was reasonable to purchase and to renew (we have it registered for 10 years so our domain costs are completely known for a long time). We feel that your consideration of names ideally starts before you have registered a company name or domain name, so we wanted the word 'name' not 'domain' in our website. 

We realize that at first glance .win is an unusual choice.  The intention of those who set up the .win registry was that it would mainly support activities such as online gaming. However, as explained above, win is used in everyday language in a much more general sense.  A win is something that meets or exceeds your stated goals, and it is in that sense that we selected it for our website. 

Ultimately our goal is to help you clarify your goals, to set criteria for evaluating success, and to help you 'win' by achieving success in those goals. We hope that you will continue to visit this blog, access our website regularly, and follow us on Twitter @AGreatDomain.

But enough about us.  As the first step to your online 'win', elaborate on your online goals.  Only with goals clearly in mind will you be able to plan a successful route forward, and evaluate how successful you have been with your online presence.