NNNNN Domain Names

While it is challenging  to estimate the worth of many domain name types, short numbered domains are somewhat easier to predict.  In the NameBio report for August 11, 2018 there were 30 sales of NNNNN (five number) domain names.  With a common day and sales venue (NameJet), this offered an opportunity to study a homogeneous dataset.  In this report I look at the sales prices, and place them within a historical context. I also see how effective  GoDaddy GoValue is in predicting sales prices for NNNNN.com domain names.

Recent Sales

With so many NNNNN sales in a single NameBio daily report, I decided to take a closer look at the prices paid.  There were 30 sales of NNNNN domain names in this daily report, ranging in price from $490 to $1500, with an average price of $654.  The majority of sales were at $500, and that was also the median price. You can see just the list of just the  5 number  domain names from that day at this link.

Several numbered domains did go for prices significantly higher than the average on this day.  The two that went for the highest price ($1500), both contain the sequence 23 and also the number 7.  Many people and cultural traditions find the number 7 to be magical or lucky, although in Chinese culture it is also treated with suspicion.  It is easy to see why the lowest priced domain went for a bit less - it starts with a 0 which is generally less desired both aesthetically and because of possible confusion with letter O.

I do not have the expertise to comment in detail on coded messages in certain numbers.  This fascinating article on Chinese messages in numbered domains will help you understand that phenomena.

Historical Valuations

We thought it would be interesting to take a  brief look at how prices for these recent sales of five number domain names compare to prices for similar digital assets in the past.  The average prices paid for NNNNN.com domain names is given below.  The information has been obtained from the NameBio database.

• 2018 YTD  $952 (range  $151 to $22,383, with 2232 sales)
• 2017 $959 (range $134 to $25,500, with 2454 sales)
• 2016 $1098 (range $100 to $34,501, with 2460 sales)
• last 5 years $1056 (range $100 to $245,000, with average 2274 sales per year)
• all time $1051 (9343 sales)

The clear picture is that several thousand NNNNN domain names sell each year (at least as listed on NameBio, there are undoubtedly many more that sell on Chinese venues not reported to NameBio) with the average price in the range from  $900 to $1100.  Within this context the recent  sales are on the low side, but the average prices in the historical data are heavily influenced by sales of highly desired sequences. There is some suggestion in the historical data that the average price of NNNNN domain  names is decreasing slightly, probably a reflection from the general  cooling in the Chinese domain name market.

All Time Top NNNNN Sales

Let's take a  look at the highest sales of all time for NameBio recorded NNNNN.com domain names.  You can find the full  list at this link. 

1. 88888  sold at Uniregistry for $245,000 in Dec 2013
2. 17176 sold at Uniregistry for $55,000 in Feb 2015
3. 10023 sold privately for $50,000 in Feb 2015
4. 83333 sold at Uniregistry for $43,000 in Aug 2015
5. 70777 sold at NameJet for $34,501 in Jan 2016
6. 88808 sold  at Uniregistry for $30,000 in Aug 2015
7. 77787 sold at SnapNames for $26,055 in Oct 2015
8. 79000 sold at GoDaddy for $25,500 in May 2017
9. 55588 sold at DropCatch for $25,050 in Mar 2016
10. 97088 sold  at NameJet for $22,500 in Feb  2016

While the largest sale was in 2013, the peak in numbers of high value NNNNN sales was in 2015. While 4 of the high sales include at least 88 (a lucky number in China), and the highest sale all 8's, various other combinations occur in the leading sales.  A number of  different venues have accounted for the sales, with Uniregistry leading, particularly in the early years.

GoValue Estimates of Worth

Since these are liquid assets, frequently traded, and  somewhat homogeneous (although with preferences for certain numbers and sequences), they should be easier to predict prices for than say multiple word (or even single word) domain names.  I had a look at GoDaddy GoValue estimates of worth for each of the domain names sold yesterday (with older sales it i difficult to be sure that the sale value did not alter the estimated worth).

What I found is in the table on the right (click on the table for a higher resolution view).  For each domain name sold (all on same day and venue) I give the name, the GoDaddy GoValue estimate of worth, and the sales price recorded.  I also compute for each the ratio of the two values – e.g. if a domain name sold  for $1400 and GoValue estimated its worth at $700 the ratio would be 2.

If you go to the bottom of the table, I compute the average and standard deviation for each column.  You can see that there is no evidence of bias, with the average prices in the GoValue estimates of worth and the sales values almost identical at $648 and $654.  This implies that the domain names recently sold did in fact trade at about the correct value.

If we look at individual values, most are at ratios of 0.50 to 1.50 indicating to me that the worths of NNNNN can  be estimated moderately precisely by automated means (although see next paragraph).  Many sales were within 20% of  their estimates of worth.  However, there are exceptions. For example GoValue predicted that 47601 was only worth $167 (it sold at the median price of $500), and the name 23757 that tied for the highest price ($1500) was only projected to have a worth of $700 by GoValue.

If I plot these data,  I obtain the result shown at the top of this blog post. There is only a weak correlation between the GoValue estimate of worth and the actual sales price.  As background an R2 value of 1.00 means perfectly correlated data, while 0.00 would mean no correlation.  This dataset with R2=0.11 is pretty weakly correlated. I actually tried a few different types of fits to the data (linear, polynomial, logarithmic, exponential) and while a couple were marginally better than the linear fit shown, not by enough that made them worth the complexity in my opinion.

For the mathematically inclined, I show at the top of the graph the equation for the best linear fit to the data, and it is repeated in words below.

Sales Price (US$) = $430 + 0.34 x GoValue Estimate

For example, if GoValue tells you that a certain NNNNN.com domain name is worth $900 the best fit regression suggests that your sales value would be about $740.  Note that at best results are only meaningful to two significant digits, so I have rounded both the parameters in the equation and the final result to this precision.  Let me stress that this is only moderately more significant than simply using the average value.  Also, this equation is derived only for NNNNN.com domain names and is not directly applicable for any other types of domain names. 

Conclusions

Christopher Beam has written a really informative article at The New Republic on why, particularly in China, numbered sequences are so popular and effective as domain names. I strongly encourage you, particularly if you invest in numeric domain names, to read the entire article which is full of  insights.

One thing  I noticed while using GoValue was that there were numerous comparator sales that came up that had not been in the NameBio database, and generally these were towards the lower end of sales prices.  This suggests that some of the venues not reporting to NameBio may well have lower prices, and that possibly the price range for the recent sales is indeed in keeping with the overall record. NameBio no longer  calculate the median, but almost certainly it is in the same range  as these sales. NamePros experienced  users have pointed out that sales to end users frequently have higher prices than  sales on venues such as GoDaddy Auctions and some of the registrar marketplaces that are dominated by sales from one domain investor to another.

Overall GoValue does a good job of estimating the value of these assets, with almost no difference between the average value predicted by GoValue for the dataset and the average sales price.  It seems only moderately effective in recognizing higher quality names however, so you should never depend exclusively on any automated estimate of domain worth.

As with conventional  real estate, prices go up and down over time.  I sense a very slight downward trend, but NNNNN domain names remain good value assets. Relatively short numbered domain names are among the most liquid part of a domain name portfolio, and therefore deserve to be part of your diversified portfolio, provided that you can acquire them at reasonable cost.

Links:

• NameBio Daily Report for August 11
• Just the NNNNN sales from Aug 11, 2018 report
• All Time NNNNN.com sales
• The Secret Messages Inside Chinese URLs 
• Chinese Numerology
• NameBio Daily Reports
• NameBio database
• GoValue
• Our site NamesThat.win - thanks for visiting
• Permanent link to this blog post

Original post Aug 12, 2018.

Disclosure:  I do not currently hold any NNNNN domain names, so have no conflicts of interest with respect to them.  I do try to use a fair and balanced approach in all of my analyses however.  I am  not associated with NameBio, but would like to acknowledge their incredible database and their generosity to make it available to the domain community. 

Fine Print

This post is offered for informational and educational purposes only, and should not be considered domain name investment advice. While an attempt has been made to be accurate, there is no implied or explicit warranty, and you are responsible for verifying any information of importance to you. You also accept full responsibility for any domain investing decisions you may make that use data from this post.

I try to be fair, balanced and objective in my analysis.  If you feel this post does not meet that standard, please express your concerns to me.  

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What Names Will Be Strong in 2018?

I posted some of these thoughts on NamePros the other day, but thought I would refine and expand my thoughts in this post. The original post was in response to a poll about which types of domain names would be popular in 2018. The poll listed crypto, AR, VR, AI and other (I voted other). So what other do I think will be important?

I think it is fair to say that 2017 was the year of Bitcoin and crypto-currencies in general. If you look at the top 100 sales of the year on Namebio, eth.com took third place at $2,000,000 and crytpbank.com and cryptotrade.com are also on the Top 100 of 2017 domain name sales list. The daily Namebio reports for the year indicated many other significant sales throughout the year.

While I think crypto-currencies in general will remain hot in 2018, I think more interest will focus on the underlying blockchain technologies. Blockchain is applicable to much more than just crypto-currencies, and will revolutionize real estate, financial transactions, investing, identity products, international trade, etc. While the prime crypto-currency names will command huge prices, I see a glut of crypto-currency registrations will help cap prices for the run of the mill crypto-currency names.

So what do I think are domain names that will see a big rise in popularity in 2018? On the list below I have after each indicated some of the common hashtags on Twitter and other social media, although of course the list is not complete and there is no real standardization of hashtags. The order that I list them below is not meant to imply relative importance.

(a) Blockchain technology (#blockchain, #BCT) Blockchain is sstock prices on Kodak doubled overnight simply based on an announcement that they would use blockchain technology in image tracking and authentication. I see most of the blockchain attention in .com and .io TLD extensions, although some country codes will also do well and here and there new gTLDs like .trade and .fund may find sales. There will be a mix of modest sales to small startups and big sales to major players.
ociety changing in importance, and I think that good blockchain domain names will sell for large amounts. An indication of blockchain attention is that

(b) Internet of Things (#IoThings, #IOT) The Internet of Things and the general idea of connected plans and projections here. The following article makes some predictions for the Internet of Things.

devices of all kinds will continue to grow. Clever names in good extensions, or brandable options, will find customers. Both .com and .io will be good, some of the country codes, and possibly a bit of traffic in the more generic of the new gTLDs such as .online, .site or .xyz. I think words directly IoT, IoThings, InternetOfThings will sell of course, but even more so ideas that use connected or synonyms in a clever and memorable way. Creativity will pay off for those who can come up with a memorable startup name for the connected era. CISCO is a big player in the Internet of Things - you can find some of their

(c) Nanomaterials (#nano, #nanoscience, #nanomaterials, #nanoparticles, #nanotech, #IONT) While nanotech and nanomaterials have been around for years, I think many of the most exciting applications, in particular building really tiny and smart nanodevices for things like medicine (to precisely deliver pharmaceuticals) and smart material science. More than just experts will begin to combine these two ideas in an Internet of Nanoscale Things. (#IONT). This Scientific American article looks at the transition to nanoscale objects in the Internet of Things. This article looks at IONT from a business perspective. I think that while .com will as always command many of the sales, .io will be very popular in this area perhaps even more than .com. There will be some interest in a few of the new gTLDs, particularly .site, .tech and .science.

(d) Genetic Medicine (#genetic, #DNA, #CRISPR, Both in terms of editing to cure or prevent genetic related diseases using things like CRISPR, and genetics broadly and generally (e.g. consumer things like the ancestry services) is I think the sleeper that no one is talking much about (in the domain community - lots of talk in the world of science and medicine!). Unsure what CRISPR is? Here is a good short article including some potential applications, while this article from New Scientist describes 20 human trials either in place or about to start. I don't think there will not be a huge number of sales, but some of them will be at very good prices. While CRISPR has many applications outside health, I think medical applications will drive most of the domain name interest. The most obvious CRISPR name extensions are held in a few hands currently, only some of which are listed for sale. The golden era for CRISPR domain name sales is still a few years away, but 2018 will see some movement.

(e) Psychology/Healthy Mind (#PositivePsychology, #Happiness, #HappinessAdvantage) The idea of positive psychology was popularized through The Happiness Advantage by Shawn Achor (see this link to learn more, including links to both the book and TED talk). The essential idea is expressed this way: "When we are positive, our brains become more engaged, creative, motivated, energetic, resilient, and productive." This means that the first step in becoming more productive is to work on your happiness level. I see various combinations of positive, psychology, happy, happiness and advantage in domain names as finding customers, both at the moderately high end and particularly at prices modest enough for a single consultant or counsellor. Positive psychology has clear implications for successful schools and businesses, although the impact is much broader than that. Of course this is just one topic in the area of mental health, and I see topics such as meditation, mindfulness, counselling, etc. all finding interest. Overall I think 2018 will be a good year for .org, and I see some of the big players here choosing .org, .net or possibly .site, .club or .online, instead of .com. There is probably room for some of the new gTLD to have an impact here too.

(f) Design I think design of various kinds will be popular, selling at amounts ranging fro tens of dollars to tens of thousands of dollars. It is encouraging that big names like NPR, Facebook and Kohler have meaningly used the .design TLD, and I see this helping get the new gTLD finding a market among smaller companies. I don't see many sales of $1000 or more, but I think there will be a number of sales in the hundreds of dollars range. Those with good .design names will be able to make modest profits, or hold for another year for better returns.

(g) Environmental For good reason there will continue to be lots of international attention on issues of climate change and the environment more generally. Of course many of the players here will already use existing organizational or educational sites rather than purchase new domains, but I think media, non governmental organizations and others will be willing to pay small but significant amounts for a descriptive domain name. This is one area that I think .com will not be the best option. I think many environmental organizations will select TLDs like .site, .space, .website and .online, as well as the environment centred .eco TLD that comes with controls on who can use it.

(h) Startups Certainly 2017 was active for the TLD extension .io for tech startups, and the first couple of weeks of 2018 shows that trend continuing. Each year many startups begin (and end), and each wants a name that will feel unique. With limited budgets in some cases, I think we will see a small rebound of .xyz as a very low cost option for tiny startups and I see some cost-conscious startups with global hopes will go with .gdn (global domain name). Environmental startups may select .eco that brings credibility and the possibility to get a really short domain name.

(i) Freelancers I saved for last what I think will be the largest market for domain names - individuals starting single person companies, many of them part time. They will be looking for a domain name that is simple and catchy, but not be willing or able to pay a large amount. While many will use .com and .net (or a country or region extension), I see .pw, .site, .online, .top and .xyz finding some sales here. I also see good potential for the more specialized new gTLDs such as .design, .guru, .tech, .agency, studio and many others, as well as legacy extensions such as .pro and .biz (although overall I think .biz does not have a bright future). While the rebranding of .pw as professional web has had fairly modest success so far, I see 2018 being good for .pw including some sales in the tens to hundreds of dollars on the resale markets.

Clearly the above list reflects my own interests and biases. Please feel free to expand the list with your ideas through the comments section here, or through interacting with me on Twitter. There is no doubt that 2018 will be an interesting one in the world of domain names!

Original post Jan 12, 2018.

Formatting only modification July 29, 2018 – no change to content.

Disclosure: This report presents the views of the author, and is not intended as professional individual advice on which to base business decisions. The author has domain names for sale in several of the areas mentioned here, so bias is possible (or probable!). The complete list of domain names I own is available here.


Photo credits: The images used to illustrate the article are from Pixabay and believed to all allow commercial use. If you spot an issue with an image please let us know and we will remove it immediately. The images we use here are provided by Pixabay users Tumisu, geralt, TheDigitalArtist, qimono, CreativeMagic, stux, stevepb, StartupStockPhotos and OvidiuTepes.


Note: This report is presented both on the author's blog and as a white paper on NamesThat.win. The white paper version will be updated, and should be regarded as more authoritative. In particular the author owns CRISPR in various TLD extensions and a number of nanotech related domain names.


This article may be reprinted in whole or in part provided that a credit of the original source is given, ideally with a link.