New Domain Extension Sales Oct 23 - Nov 22, 2018

I have decided to move my series of monthly new extension domain sales analysis reports to a the site DomainWorld.info, starting with the report through Nov 22, 2018.  I will continue to announce with a link to full report and summarize each monthly report here.

Summary

Here is a summary of NameBio announced ngTLD domain name sales for the period Oct 23 - Nov 22, 2018.

• 88 NameBio recorded ngTLD sales in the 31 day period, with about $257,000 total sale volume.
• The average sales price was $2920. The median price was $1404.
• In terms of major sales, 11 were > $5000 and 57 > $1000.
• Sales occurred in 24 different extensions.
• The highest price sales were KS.top ($38,196), new.earth ($18,800), have.fun ($11,500), spiritual.life ($9750), community.global ($8000), food.top ($7567) and preserve.life ($7500).
• There were ngTLD domain sales during the month at 12 different venues. Alibaba Cloud had the highest number of sales (24) with Sedo second (15), although Sedo had a larger sales volume dollar wise.
• Most ngTLD sales are either single word or very short (or both). Together those categories accounted for 72% of the sales this month.
• Registries accounted for almost 51% of dollar volume and about 27% of the sales by number this month.
• In 2018 YTD there have been 1363 ngTLD sales listed on NameBio, with an average price of $3606. Sales volume is just over $4.9 million YTD.

You can find the full report at this link. It includes a breakdown by extension, sales venue, and type of domain. I also list the highest value sales, as well as some of the names that I think span the dot effectively as well as some names that sold for value prices.

You can find the links to all of the monthly ngTLD sales reports in one place here. 

Note that at year end I am planning to change the reporting period for these reports to correspond with the end of each month. Therefore the next report will cover the period Nov 23 to Dec 31, 2018 and will be published early in January.

New Extension Sales Sept 23 - Oct 22, 2018

This was one of the quieter months of new domain extension sales since I began this series (see links to previous reports at bottom).  The average number of sales per month in the previous seven reports was 120 compared to just 68 this month. The number of sales was down substantially from last month (313), although the sales dollar volume was only slightly lower. The average sales price of $2955 was about quadruple last month's figure, however and the median was also substantially higher this month.

Summary

During the monthly period ending Oct 22, 2018 there were

• 67 NameBio recorded ngTLD sales in the 30 day period, with $180,800 total sale volume.
• The average sales price was $2955. The median price was $801.
• In terms of major sales, 1 was > $50,000, 8 were > $5000 and 29 > $1000.
• Sales in 22 different extensions, with .top, .global and .link most common.
• The highest sale price was design.online $57,500, dispatch.app at $15,000 in second, while four different .global names (switch, scoop, cyber and leap) tied for third place.
• There were ngTLD domain sales during the month at 11 different venues. Dynadot had the largest number of sales (25) followed by Alibaba Cloud (15).
• The types of domain names that sold: 69% were single word,  14% were short (<=3 letters), and 9% were geographical.
• Registries accounted for almost 64% of dollar volume, but less than 19% by number.
• In 2018 YTD there have been 1196 ngTLD sales listed on NameBio, with an average price of $3675. Sales volume is just over $4.4 million YTD. 

Extension Breakdown

I list in the table on the right  (click on table for a higher resolution version) those extensions that had either multiple sales in an extension, or a total monthly sales volume of  $500 or more. They are arranged by decreasing total sales volume, but the number of  sales for each are also listed.

The following extensions had a single sale: agency, city, gmbh, life, pics, run, site, and vip.  In total, there were sales during this period in 22 different extensions,

The Highest Value Sales

Below is a list of the major sales for the reporting period. Only 2 (or possibly 3) of the top sales were not registry.

• design.online $57.500  Sedo
• dispatch.app $15,000  UserScape
• switch.global  $8,000  DotGlobal
• scoop.global  $8,000  DotGlobal
• cyber.global  $8,000  DotGlobal
• leap.global  $8,000  DotGlobal
• edge.network $7515 Sedo
• DMV.online $5101  Dynadot

Venues

The month saw a steady increase in new extension sales at Dynadot and a drop at Flippa.  As pointed out last month, new domain extensions essentially never sell at GoDaddy (at least not above $100). Here are the venues with multiple new extension sales during the month.

• Dynadot 25
• Alibaba Cloud 15
• Dot Global (registry) 9
• Sedo 8
• BizCN 2
• Jiangsu Bangning (registry) 2

Names That Span Dot Effectively

Some of the domain names from this reporting period that I personally feel make excellent use of the extension as congruent with the domain name are the following:

• design.online
• citizen.group
• simple.solutions
• auto.finance
• rock.city
• click.link
• chain.global
• read.life
• sun.group
• switch.global
• edge.network

Great Value

Interestingly a few of the great names went for value prices.  For example click.link was just $123 and rock.city only $130.  In my mind the greatest value this month though was simple.solutions that sold for only $122. The word winter sold in the .xyz extension for merely $101,  a  true bargain price. These show that, at least sometimes, you can get memorable names in the new extensions at excellent value.

Types of Domains

We also performed an analysis of the type of domain name.  The majority (69%) were single word domain names (+ extension of course), although short (defined as 3  characters or less) were also popular (14%).  About 9% were geographical terms.  Numbers remain unpopular in the ngTLDs with only 2 in this  dataset.  Multiple word domains were rare this month, with just a couple off 2 word names and  one 3 word. Three of the names were adult in nature.

Year to Date 

So far in 2018 there have been 1196 ngTLD sales with an average sales price of $3675. The total value of 2018 reported ngTLD sales up to the day of writing is just over $4.4 million. For reference last year saw $5.2 million in total new extension sales.

Discussion

This report has mixed news for new domain name investors. While the number of sales and number of extensions, are both down from last month, they are in line with the year overall.  On average, this month just over 2 ngTLD sales are reported per day in the NameBio database.  The sales volume  has remained almost constant and the average price is up this month (at least compared to the previous two reporting periods).

One reason I produce these reports is to provide guidance to ngTLD investors to help them optimize their chances for success. The fact that ngTLD sales seem to be trending up on Dynadot may be actionable information.  Outside the registry sales, Sedo continues to be the venue that obtains the highest prices for quality new extension names.  Also, this month confirms a general trend  that single word domains with a good match on the two sides of the dot are most likely to sell, although short acronym names and geo names also find traction in the new extension space.  Surprisingly few number domains sell in new extensions, only 2 during this reporting period.

While I show sales by extension, I would caution those investing in new domain extensions that, unlike the com/net/org/info space, it is not primarily the extension that matters, but rather the match between the name and the extension.  As such, high value sales are possible, even if not probable, in almost any extension even those without a sales history.

It is still prudent to be cautious when investing in these extensions, and still true that overall the return on investment seems better in .com. The difference is possibly narrowing, however, and if the comparison is with other legacy extensions, or country code extensions, the case for new extensions could be made (although is still arguable). For those new to this field, my post on 12 reasons why end users (and domain investors) might want to consider new domain extensions may be worthwhile. The health of new extensions, ultimately, depends on the adoption of these extensions in significant websites.

Notes

The NameBio database (or at least the portion publicly reported) does not include sales with value less than $100, nor sales from a number of venues such as Afternic, Undeveloped or Efty (unless buyers or sellers report them individually), nor from most of the ngTLD registries, so it is difficult to estimate how complete a record this is of all ngTLD domain name sales. Sometimes sales are posted on NameBio after their recorded sales date and therefore never appear on the daily report although they do appear in the NameBio database.

Previous Reports

Here are links to the three previous reports in case you want to do monthly comparisons:

• Period ending Sept 22, 2018
• Period ending Aug 22, 2018
• Period ending July 22, 2018
• Period ending June 22, 2018
• Period ending May 22, 2018
• Period ending Apr 22, 2018
• Period ending Mar 22, 2018

Next Report and Other News

We will issue our next report in late November, and it will cover ngTLD sales for the period from Oct 23 through Nov 22. This monthly update on publicly reported ngTLD sales is offered as a service to the domain community.  While I strive to be accurate, no implied guarantee or warranty is associated with this report, and readers should independently verify information before using it in any domain investment decisions.  As always, we welcome comments and corrections. We report regularly on domain name news, with a special emphasis on the new extensions, on our Twitter feed.  Why not join the almost 1600 domain investors, venture capitalists, tech experts, startup owners and other great people that already follow us @AGreatName?  If we can be of assistance in helping you find a domain name at a value price, or using a domain name phrase in a marketing campaign, don't hesitate to contact us through our website (or via direct message at Twitter).

Original post Oct 25 2018.

Disclosure:  I currently hold a number of  ngTLD domain names. I am  not associated with NameBio, but would like to acknowledge their incredible database and their generosity to make it available to the domain community. This, and all other postings at this site, are offered for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as domain investment advice. You are responsible for your own domain investment decisions. 

ONLINE Extension Sales

The top sale for Oct 2, 2018 in the NameBio daily report was a new global top level domain (ngTLD).  The acronym DMV sold with the .online extension on Dynadot for $5101. While this is a single sale, when looked at in a broader context it seems part of a pattern of considerable momentum in the .online extension.

Sales of Online

As of writing the NameBio database shows 87 sales of online with an average price of $4804 (the link will show current values).  There have been 6 sales for more than $10,000 and 34 sales for more than $1000. The largest sale ever was casino.online that sold for $201,250 in 2017.  Second place is the recent (Sept 24, 2018) sale of design.online for $57,500.  The recent momentum is clear at the top of the price list, with 7 of the 10 highest value sales all in 2018 (2015, 2016 and 2017 have one each).

Discussion

I plan to do a full review of the .online extension in the not too distant future, but as background would point out that it is in the top 10 of ngTLDs in terms of registrations.  The extension, part of the Radix portfolio of ngTLDs, came into general availability on Aug 26, 2015.

I think .online has a bright future as it works naturally with many keywords to make a descriptive and memorable domain phrase. Names like casino.online, lodges.online, assurance.online and  counselling.online tell you exactly what to expect at the site.  While many of the sales have been in single words, a number of two word domain names have also sold in the extension, such as AirConditioning.online, FindMe.online, PayIt.online and MyWorld.online.

The extension has a lot of momentum. As noted earlier, 7 of the top 10 sales in the extension were in 2018.  As of time of writing 50 of the 87 sales overall in the extension were in 2018 (the link will show updated data).

For some time it has been true that .online is strong in actual website use, at least when compared with other ngTLDs.  As of writing date it had 1499 websites in the Alexa 1M, or one per every 575 domain names registered.  While this is about a factor of two less than .com, it is better than the vast majority of extensions.

I also view it as healthy that the extension has sales on many different venues including Dynadot, Flippa, GoDaddy, Sedo and Uniregistry.  While there have been initial premium registry sales, it would appear that the vast majority of sales (at least in NameBio database), both in numbers and value, have been in the aftermarket, another encouraging sign.

I might also point out that Dynadot, the venue for this sale, has become more active in ngTLD sales of late.

Original post Oct 3, 2018.

Fine Print

This post is offered for informational and educational purposes only, and should not be considered domain name investment advice. While an attempt has been made to be accurate, there is no implied or explicit warranty, and you are responsible for verifying any information of importance to you. You also accept full responsibility for any domain investing decisions you may make. I have no association with the folks who maintain NameBio or NameStat databases. I acknowledge the makers of these for the valuable products that they make freely available to the domain name community. 

I try to be fair, balanced and objective in my analysis.  If you feel this post does not meet that standard, please express your concerns to me.  I hold personally only a single .online domain name. I never accept compensation to provide favourable review of any particular service or product.

The text of this posting is ©R Hawkes, all rights reserved. However, you may, without permission, use reasonable length portions of the post as long as a link to this post is also provided. If you wish to use the complete contents of a post, please request permission. I am normally open to reprinting, but will consider each request individually. 

New Extension Sales Analysis Aug 23 - Sept 22, 2018

This was an unusual month for new extension domain sales with dramatically more sales at the low value end but relatively few high value sales (just 3 above $10,000 and 30 above $1,000). As a result the average sales price was significantly lower ($634).  While the number of sales is almost double the previous month, the dollar volume of sales is down by about a factor of two (although last month was the highest volume of sales since I began these monthly reports.) A very active month at Flippa accounted for much of this change (but see Note 1). The .top extension, mainly registry sales of premium names, dominated sales dollar volume again this month. Many extensions had a significant number of sales, however, with 46 extensions having at least a single sale, and 10 extensions having ten or more sales during the month. Both of these are new records since I began these reports.

Summary

During the monthly period ending Sept 22, 2018 there were

• 313 NameBio recorded ngTLD domain name sales in the 30 day period, with $198,500 total sale volume (Although see Note 1).
• The average sales price was $634. The median price was roughly $198.
• In terms of major sales, 3 were for $10,000 or more 30 were for $1000 or more.
• There were sales during the month in 46 different extensions, the most since I started these reports. Ten different extensions had 10 or more sales in the month.
• The highest sale during the month was AD.top which sold for $32,232. AR.studio at $15,495 and transparency.online at $10,000 took second and third places.
• There were ngTLD domain sales during the month at 10 different venues.  Flippa had the highest number of sales, but Jiangsu Bangning had the highest sales volume. Sedo took third place in sales volume.
• For the 100 highest value sales in the month: 12% were 3 letter (or less), 32% were single word, 36% were two word, 3% were three word,  and 17% were other.
• Registries accounted for just over 40% of the dollar volume of these sales, but less than 10% of the number of sales this month  (Note 3).
• So far in 2018 there have been 1120 ngTLD sales in total listed on NameBio, with an average sales price of $3743, accounting for a total of $4.2 million sales volume. 

Extension Breakdown

I list in the table on the right  (click on table for a higher resolution version) those extensions that had either multiple sales in an extension, or a total monthly sales volume of  $350 or more. They are arranged by decreasing total sales volume, but the number of  sales for each are also listed. The popular extensions  .top, .online, .club, and .site all had a good number of sales in the month.

A  few extensions that are only rarely traded had major sales, including the great domain names smile.direct and Mr.glass.  The .fun extension  had a good month with 20 sales. The first aftermarket sales of the newly released .icu extension came this month.

If you are wondering which other extensions had a single sale, they are accountant, city, download, group, loan, network, pictures, rocks, science and tax.  In total, there were sales during this period in 46 different extensions, a record since I started doing doing monthly analyses of new extension domain name sales. That being said, it still means that about 400 new extensions that are in general availability did not record a single sale during the month (at least on  sites that report to NameBio).

If instead of sales volume you look at the number of sales, we have the results pictured on the left, with 10 different extensions having 10 or more sales during the month. For several of these extensions the sales this month represent a significant portion of their total NameBio sales record. However, see also Note 1 about possible issues in some of the data.

The Highest Value Sales

Below is a list of the major sales for the reporting period. Since there were only 3 sales over $10,000 this month, I decided to list all sales that were $3000 or more.  Unlike  other months, there were no reported sales from the Global registry.  Also, some other registries like Radix only report a couple of times a year. These reports often miss a portion of the .top registry sales that are reported to NameBio for dates within the reporting period but after we publish the analysis. For these reasons, and possibly others, there are fewer large registry sales in this  report than the last few monthly reports.

• AD.top $32,252  Jiangsu Bangning
• AR,studio $15,495  Sedo
• transparency.online  $10,000  Afternic
• wonder.top $7853  Jiangsu Bangning
• mobile.top  $7633  Jiangsu Bangning
• smile.direct  $7018  Sedo
• sanya.top $6585  Jiangsu Bangning
• handan.top $5865  Jiangsu Bangning
• a.company $4000  Sedo
• trt.top  $3907  Alibaba Cloud
• bdd.top $3657 Alibaba Cloud
• Mr.glass $3000  Sedo

I am not absolutely sure whether two of the sales are registry or not (the two at Alibaba Cloud), but I believe that 5 of the sales are directly registry, and the rest are probably not direct sales of premium domain names by a registry.   I only count a sale as a premium registry sale if it is being sold for the first time. For example, if I purchase a premium name from a registry, hold it for some period, and then sell it on Sedo to another user, I would not count it as a registry sale. See Note 3 regarding registry sales classification.

Venues

The graph at the right shows the top 5 venues for the sales when rated according to total dollar volume. The .top registry, Jiangsu Bangning, had the largest volume of sales again this month, although two venues that mainly handle sales from domain investors, took second and third place. It should be noted that although Afternic had a major reported sale, normally sales at that venue doe not report to NameBio and therefore the sales volume indicated does not represent the total sales there.  Also, marketplaces like Undeveloped, and registrar marketplaces at Namecheap and Namesilo are not reported to NameBio.  Venues with a single ngTLD sale during the reporting period include GoDaddy, Key Systems, West, 101 Domains, and NamesThat.win. Sedo is established as a venue for high value ngTLD sales, while Flippa has more sales but predominantly at prices of $500 and less, with some exceptions. While I feel it likely that the registrar marketplaces (probably especially Namecheap who handle so many ngTLD  initial  registrations), Efty sites, Undeveloped and other/private venues are probably handling a good volume of ngTLD sales, but those  are not routinely reported in the NameBio database. 

Names That Span Dot Effectively

Some of the domain names from this reporting period that I personally feel make excellent use of the extension as congruent with the domain name are the following:

• ticket.city
• games.business
• smile.direct
• AR.studio
• a.company
• Mr.glass
• biomedicine.online
• Chelsea.fun
• wonder.top
• Plato.top

Great Value

Interestingly a few of the great names went for value prices.  For example Chelsea.fun was just $199 and ticket.city is in my mind one of the best ngTLD deals ever at just $100. The domain name CA.tax (CA could mean Canada, California or chartered accountant) went for only $120, while e-sports.icu sold for only $128.  These show that, at least sometimes, you can get memorable names in the new extensions at excellent value.

Types of Domains

This month we did an analysis of the type of domain name for the 100 highest value domain names.  The results are shown on the left (click on the chart for a higher resolution view). Very short acronym names remain popular, with 12% of the sales from 1 to 3 letter in length. Most of the more valuable domain names were either short or single word, with 32% of the top 100 sales  single word.  However, there appears to be a trend toward more multiple word new extension domain names, with 36% of the sales two word and 3% were three word. Three word names included LiveWorldCup.online and CaresAndShares.online.  In some cases the domain names were difficult to classify and 17% were placed in an undetermined or other category.

Year to Date 

So far in 2018 there have been 1120 ngTLD sales with an average sales price of $3743. The total value of 2018 reported ngTLD sales up to the day of writing is $4.2 million. For reference last year saw $5.2 million in total new extension sales.

Discussion

This report has mixed news for new domain name investors. While the number of sales, and number of extensions, are both up from previous months, the number of high value sales and the total sales volume are both down.

As indicated in Note 1, there is scepticism among some regarding a portion of the recent sales at one venue.  If we accept that they are all legitimate sales, however, it is encouraging to see that finally a healthy exchange on domain names in the $100 to $400 range is taking place.  The majority of domain name sales (at least on NameBio) in legacy extensions such as .com are in the $250 to $500 range, and in my opinion there is a market for value priced domain names in new extensions. There are indicators in this report that there are beginnings of a market for two word domain names in the new extension domain market.

It is surprising that only a single sale took place on GoDaddy.  This is a major site for sale of legacy extension domain names between domain investors, and it seems surprising that so few sales, at least over $100, are happening there in the new extensions.

Various China based venues continue to sell a healthy number and volume of .top extension domain names, often at significant prices.

While the total number of reported new extension domain sales is fairly limited at Sedo, they sell for very good prices in multiple extensions.  They have done this since the beginning, although the prices seem to be creeping upward.  For ngTLD sales at Sedo the average price 2018 YTD is $4124, vs $3939 last year and $2473 in 2016.  It is likely that next month will take the total volume of ngTLD sales for the year (currently at $544k) to the highest single year ever at that venue (in 2017 $551k were sold at Sedo, the current record for a year).

While tracking past sales in an extension can be valuable domain intelligence, it is important to realize that not infrequently one encounters major sales in an extension  that has not previously had a major sale.  I wrote an earlier post on this topic.

While I show sales by extension, I would caution those investing in new domain extensions that, unlike the com/net/org/info space, it is not primarily the extension that matters, but rather the match between the name and the extension.  As such, high value sales are possible, even if not probable, in almost any extension even those without a sales history.

It is still prudent to be cautious when investing in these extensions, and still true that overall the return on investment seems better in .com. The difference is possibly narrowing, however, and if the comparison is with other legacy extensions, or country code extensions, the case for new extensions could be made (although is still arguable). For those new to this field, my post on 12 reasons why end users (and domain investors) might want to consider new domain extensions may be worthwhile. The health of new extensions, ultimately, depends on the adoption of these extensions in significant websites.

Notes

The NameBio database (or at least the portion publicly reported) does not include sales with value less than $100, nor sales from a number of venues such as Afternic, Undeveloped or Efty (unless buyers or sellers report them individually), nor from most of the ngTLD registries, so it is difficult to estimate how complete a record this is of all ngTLD domain name sales. Sometimes sales are posted on NameBio after their recorded sales date and therefore never appear on the daily report although they do appear in the NameBio database.

Previous Reports

Here are links to the three previous reports in case you want to do monthly comparisons:

• Period ending Aug 22, 2018
• Period ending July 22, 2018
• Period ending June 22, 2018
• Period ending May 22, 2018
• Period ending April 22, 2018
• Period ending March 22, 2018

Next Report and Other News

We will issue our next report in late October, and it will cover ngTLD sales for the period from Sept 23 through Oct 22. This monthly update on publicly reported ngTLD sales is offered as a service to the domain community.  While I strive to be accurate, no implied guarantee or warranty is associated with this report, and readers should independently verify information before using it in any domain investment decisions. This, and all other postings at this site, are offered for educational purposes and should not be interpreted as domain investment advice. You are responsible for your own domain investment decisions.  As always we welcome comments and corrections. We report regularly on domain name news, with a special emphasis on the new extensions, on our Twitter feed.  Why not join the more than 1500 domain investors, venture capitalists, tech experts, startup owners and other great people that already follow us @AGreatName?  If we can be of assistance in helping you find a domain name at a value price, or using a domain name phrase in a marketing campaign, don't hesitate to contact us through our website (or via direct message at Twitter).

Notes and Caveats:

1. As the reader of previous monthly sales analyses will note, there was a significant increase in the number of low value sales at one venue (Flippa) in this report. These had started in the final few days in the previous report, and continued through the first three-quarters of this report. The unexpected number of sales attracted attention and discussion within the domain community, and some are sceptical of at least some of these sales as, to western observers, a number of the names seem of  questionable quality. Most, but not all, share a price in the range $160 to $200, and were from sellers in the same geographical region.  Many of the cases involved similar or identical words being sold in different extensions.  I have spent many hours looking into these, examining sellers, registration dates, names, extensions, prices and more.  While I don't claim to understand a number of the sales.  While the narrow price range seems surprising, I discovered that a significant part of all Flippa sales are in that range and have been for some time.  It should also be stated that the same terms, or very similar ones, sold in a number of other extensions on Flippa, including .pro, .us, .asia and likely .info and.com. Also, in several cases a much higher price similar name also sold.  A number of the domain names (by no means all) are in use already in sites.  I have kept all NameBio listed sales in this report. I felt that there was not compelling evidence that they should not be included. Should I have excluded many of these Flippa sales the total sales dollar volume would not be significantly changed, but the number of extensions and sales would go down significantly (and the average price would go up). 
2. For the first time since I have been  analyzing ngTLD sales there were zero dot Global sales in this reporting period.  I am not sure if that is because they have stopped reporting to NameBio or for some other reason.  That has reduced the number of high value sales, and the number of registry sales.
3. For purposes of estimating registry sales I assume that all sales from Alibaba, Jiangsu Bangning, Global, Uniregistry and registry venues are assumed registry.  I assume that all sales at Affternic, Alibaba Cloud, Flippa, GoDaddy, Namesilo, Sedo, Undeveloped and West are normally not registry.  I realize that occasionally some of the venues in this list do sell registry premium domain names,  and occasionally I count individual names as registry.  In this month the sales at 101 and Key Systems appear non-registry and were classified in that way.  No easy classification system is perfect, and I suspect a few have been misidentified. 
4. The NameBio statistical summary for the month seems slightly higher (~2%) in sales volume than I obtain by adding all of the individual extension data.  I have checked my work several times and can't resolve the difference.  It is possible this analysis is missing about 2% of the sales somehow, and therefore under represents the true sales.
5. As I have noted previously, the TOP sales in particular are periodically reported. It is quite possible, even probable, that some TOP sales will be added to the database for dates covered in this report, but that were not available to be included in this analysis.  Therefore TOP sales are likely under-represented. 
6. Most registries do not report to NameBio.  Also NameBio do not generally include data from major sales venues such as Afternic and Undeveloped (occasionally individual sales are reported, as the case for the $10,000 transparency.online sale reported here.  Nor are sales made from Efty sites and private sales normally reported. 

Original post Sept 23 2018.

Disclosure:  I currently hold a number of  ngTLD domain names. I am  not associated with NameBio, but would like to acknowledge their incredible database and their generosity to make it available to the domain community. 

Some Numbers and Reflections

Let us consider a few numbers regarding the supply and demand for domain names.

1. The number of aftermarket domain name sales publicly recorded in the NameBio database varies a bit from day to day, but averaged over the past year is about 220 domain name sales per day on NameBio.
   
2. Clearly there are sales that never get reported on NameBio, either because of privacy agreements or because the sale happened on a venue that do not report, or they are below the $100 price cutoff for sales reported by NameBio. Some estimate that 20% of all sales over $100 are NameBio reported, suggesting perhaps 1100 domain name sales  (over $100) per day in total over all marketplaces.
3. The total number of domain names for sale on the Afternic network is somewhat over 13 million, on Sedo about 19 million, and on Undeveloped just over 2.7 million.  Now clearly there are other marketplaces and sales privately, but not all of the above are unique listings, so probably the total number of domain names actively for sale is about 30 million. I accept that really more than that are in some senses for sale, but I think this number  reflects those actively listed somewhere.
4. The number of new domain names hand registered average about 8800 per day (across all extensions).
5. The global number of new businesses that start each day averages roughly 50,000.  I obtained this figure from the about 10,000 per day reported as starting in China, and then scaled by the fraction of the world's population that China represents.  

I accept that all of these numbers are uncertain to some degree. See my notes below for links and reasoning.

What Seems Obvious

The demand for domain names should be significantly higher than it is.  Even not counting non-business uses for domain names, the number of new businesses is about 5 times higher than the sum of new registrations plus domain market resales. 

These data suggest that some new businesses are either not online, using resources such as Wix or a Facebook company page that do not require a second level domain name, or using an existing domain name (as opposed to buying or registering one).  Another possibility would be if a significant number of businesses are using the 'free' domain names that are not included in these numbers.  The fact not many domains are being reported sold (at least in NameBio reported venues) shows us that the answer is not that new businesses are using domain names first registered some time ago and held by domain name investors. 

For every domain name resale there are at least eight times as many domain names that are being newly hand registered.  This implies to me that there is a disconnect between many business owners and the domain name industry, resulting in many companies choosing to register the best available name instead of buying a better name on the resale marketplaces.  Another valid interpretation is that speculation in domain names by domain name investors is responsible.  Undoubtedly both factors contribute. See the following section for additional commentary.  

We have not considered supply and demand for non-busines uses of domain names, but clearly that is important as well.  In a previous analysis I estimated that non-business  applications account for nearly 20% of the demand for domain names. 

Opinion

I believe that the numbers suggest a significant mismatch between the domain name industry as it currently stands and potential end users.  What are possible reasons why companies are choosing to hand register a domain name rather than buying a better one on the resale market, or run a business with no domain name at all?

1. They are not convinced of the value of a better domain name. I think more work needs to be done, using research evidence, educating that a premium domain name yields significant economic benefits. This information needs to find its way into schools of business. A stronger scholarly trend in the domain industry will help with coverage of domain names  become a more important part of university and college curricula.  
2. It is technically much easier to use a service like Wix rather than finding and  purchasing a domain  name, a hosting service, developing a  website, etc. The situation is easier when they can purchase the domain name via a company that will also provide web hosting, and I think the GoDaddy and Namecheap Marketplace have advantages for some purchasers. The fact that they are buying from the company that has registered the domain name also helps with trust issues (see next point). Wordpress and site builder software have made web development easier and less costly, which helps. 
3. They would like a better name, and are even willing to pay the price for one, but they have trust issues with the domain resale business.  The publicized cases of stolen  names have hurt our entire industry, as have, to be honest, impolite rhetoric from a tiny minority in the domain name industry.  Now with the GDPR induced Whois changes it is even harder to confirm genuine ownership of a domain name.  I am surprised how many domain sellers hide their real identity.  Would you buy a car from a salesman wearing a  mask who would only tell you his or her nickname and would not give you any idea of the car price to start with? Read this from Undeveloped regarding the importance of real identity in domain name extensions. 
4. They find the process of finding a domain name on the reseller markets confusing or complex. Misuse of the word 'premium', silly pricing of a few names, the plethora of domain name marketplaces, lack of attractive presentation of names, inefficient categorization making it hard to find the right name,  the  lack of provision of buy it now (BIN) pricing or at least minimum offer, etc. have all weakened our industry. To those familiar with domain names, it is trivial to see what is available, but it is a far different experience for someone who has never accessed the domain sites before. If we ever evolve to a single integrated global market,  like the blockchain powered DAN proposal from Undeveloped, I think the number of aftermarket sales will pick up. It will be good for end users and for domain name investors.
5. The plethora of new extensions has caused confusion for end users. Some of these extensions, and how they were 'promoted' with initial discounts, has cheapened and weakened the entire industry, as have some of the extension choices. Like seriously, why were singular and plural extensions approved, or an extension like .sucks? Who thought it was a good idea to approve so many extensions all at once? (These are intended as rhetorical questions for emphasis; I do know who, I just disagree with the decisions!)
6. The variable renewal rates on some premium new extension names have scared some away from domain names in general.  I think that the industry would be stronger if a universally enforced policy required all extensions (legacy, country code and new) to commit to suggested retail price renewal rates for a 5 year period.  I am not saying fixed at current levels, but price increases should be known - e.g.,  2% per year, or whatever.  I am  not arguing for uniformity, and registrars should be able to sell for less, but there should be a maximum renewal rate for years 2-5 for each extension that the buyer knows. Also, premium renewals should be outlawed. Period.  I am glad that the .icu extension, while having premium initial prices, has committed to standard renewal rates for all.
7. Volatility in value of domain names, in particular of .mobi, have caused some to fear a domain name they paid a lot for will go out of vogue and become worthless.  I think the persistence of .com owes much to this one factor. Businesses feel more confident that if they pay a large price today, it will have at least much of that in two years time.  Of course as the NameBio daily report shows, even many .com prices do drop by 90% or more on resale.
8. Independent Fair Market Value of domain names needs to be available through more reliable domain name worth estimates.  I am not as critical as many of GoDaddy GoValue and Estibot, and  do consult both regularly, but I feel that they could be much better.  I like the approach of using extension specific, or niche specific appraisals.  Ultimately we need the process of appraisal of value being separated from those who could profit from high valuations. Whether those appraisals are automated, by humans, or mixed mode,  is not really the point I am making.  The point is that as a potential purchaser I need to be able to go to an inexpensive and  trusted source and learn that the worth range for a domain name is between  $x and $y.  That does not mean that to me it is worth only that, or that much, but for those working in corporate environments we need that information.
9. We need to move the domain name business from a speculative model of holding assets until they appreciate, into a service oriented model where we help consumers make a good domain selection and through the steps of acquiring it.  I am not saying  that this is not being done currently by some, but it needs to become the standard within our business.

These are my thoughts.  A lot more could be written on each point, and some I do plan to develop into individual blog posts.  I am simultaneously both optimistic and pessimistic.  As it stands now, I am convinced that most domain name investors are not making significant money (but that is a future post!) and at the same time end users are frustrated and underserved.  However, I feel that the fundamental data supports the possibility that a much higher percentage of domain names held by investors could potentially be sold. 

Please let us know what you think through the comments section!

Notes:

(1)    I obtained the first number by taking the reported number of new businesses per day in China, and then scaling by the fraction of the world population represented by China.  While there is considerable uncertainty, this number is probably not less than one-half this figure.

(2)    The new registration data is from standard domain industry sources and is the number of new registrations, not the net increase that is much less when expired domain names are taken into account.

(3)     The domain name sales per day was obtained by multiplying the average daily number of NameBio reported sales (220) by a factor of 5 to represent sales not reported there.  Clearly this factor is uncertain, and some would suggest that it should be higher.  I don't think it can reasonably be argued that it would be high enough to make the arguments of this post invalid, however.

Links:

• NameBio
• Verisign domain report Q1 2018
• How Many Domain Names Does the World Need?
• Undeveloped Blog
• GoDaddy GoValue
• Estibot
• Wix
• NameStat (statistics on registrations, use, etc.)
• nTLDs site (statistical data on new extension registrations)
• Freenom ('free' domain name provider)
• Our site NamesThat.win - thanks for visiting
• Permanent link to this blog post

Original post Aug 6, 2018.

Fine Print

This post is offered for informational and educational purposes only, and should not be considered domain name investment advice. While an attempt has been made to be accurate, there is no implied or explicit warranty, and you are responsible for verifying any information of importance to you.

In a few cases there may be affiliate links will on this blog. This means I receive a small amount if users visit or make purchases via the link. You do not pay any additional charge due to using an affiliate link, and in some cases below the normal price. I receive no identifying information about who clicks, or does not click, any link. I never accept compensation to provide favourable review of any particular service or product.

I try to be fair, balanced and objective in my analysis.  If you feel this post does not meet that standard, please express your concerns to me.  As disclosure, I do have a domain portfolio that is predominantly ngTLD domain names, although I do also own a number of .com, .ca, .co and a few other country code extension domains..

The text of this posting is ©R.L. Hawkes, all rights reserved. However, you may, without permission, use reasonable length portions of the post as long as a link to this post is also provided. If you wish to use the complete contents of a post, please request permission. I am normally open to reprinting, but will consider each request individually. 

The images used are either those associated with a product or service, or Pixabay images believed to be available for use without attribution. If you see any image that you believe is problematic, please let us know and we will immediately correct the situation.

Renewal Costs and New Extensions

A discussion in a NamePros thread with respect to new domain name extensions (ngTLD) has touched on the topic of renewal costs.  It is often stated by ngTLD critics that renewal costs are prohibitive as one of their arguments against new domain extensions. I decided to take an objective look at whether this claim is actually supported by data. Here is what I found.

Finding Best Prices

Fortunately for us in the domain community, sites such as TLD-list allow anyone to easily find the best prices for domain registrations, transfers and renewals.  That site updates the data every few hours, so you can readily find the most up to data information for any of the extensions over the numerous registrars that they track.  Several other sites track cost data.  For example, if you look up an extension on NameStat the costs at various registrars are given on the right hand column.  One reason I prefer the TLD-list is that they include reviews for each registrar, and if you scroll to the bottom they will show you have a graph showing registration, transfer and renewal costs as a function of date.  This is useful information to see what a typical rate is, and it also helps you see if current deals being offered in an extension are a god deal.

Legacy Extension Costs

First off, I used the TLD-list data to find the least expensive renewal rate for the main legacy extensions that are widely traded. These data change every few hours, so you may find slightly different values, but these values reflect the best prices as of right now in each extension. Let me emphasize that these are the best prices, and the costs at any particular registrar may be more.

• .com $8.75
• .net $9.78
• .org $9.99
• .info $10.98
• .io $29.95
• .co $21.47
• .ai $70.88

So for the most frequently held and traded extensions (com, net and .org) the renewal price is typically $9 to $10.  This does not vary much, as the wholesale costs to the registrar is only a bit less than this, and competition from the many registrars who handled these extensions keep it from going much higher as well.  Occasionally there are deals offered on new registrations and transfers, but seldom significant ones on renewals. If you browse daily NameBio domain name sales reports, you see frequent sales of .co and .io extensions, so I included those country code renewal rates as well.

Most Popular New Extensions

While it would be challenging to get data on renewals of all ngTLDs (over a thousand), I wanted an objective measure of rates for the extensions most frequently encountered. The nTLDstats site gives registration data for each extension. From that site I took the ten most registered of the new extensions. Together these 10 extensions currently account for 52% of the total ngTLD registrations and a large percentage of ngTLD sales numbers over the past year (at least) - for example see my monthly analysis at this link, and scroll to bottom of that post to see links for previous monthly reports.

I think we can accept the following extensions are representative of the most encountered ngTLDs.  I list the best (note prices updated to Aug 30, 2018) price (obtained via TLD-list) for renewal cost of each extension.

• .top $4.99
• .loan $11.50
• .xyz $8.50
• .club $8.88
• .vip $6.99
• .online $16.99
• .win $11.50
• .shop $25.95
• .ltd $14.46

Four of the top 5 of the ngTLDs all have renewal prices better than the average of the best renewal rates for a package of .com, .net and .org domain names. The new extension renewal rates are all significantly better than some popular extensions such as .co and .ai and many others.

Lest you think these rates are only for some obscure registrar you don't want to deal with, the lowest rates for .top, .loan, .online and .win are at NameSilo; for .club, .shop and .ltd it is Porkbun; for .xyz lowest prices are at Epik, and for .vip Dynadot offered the best rates at the date off checking. These are all registrars I respect and would or do use. Also, the rates at other popular registrars, such as Namecheap, are almost as low.

Premium Renewals

New extension domain names in some, but not all extensions, have certain names reserved and sold by the registry at higher premium values.  It depends on the registry whether these premium prices are only for the original sale, or if there is a premium renewal rate as well. Be cautious of these in your portfolio is good advice, and always check any name you are considering buying to see if it is 'premium' in this sense. I give potential users this advice in my domain descriptions (but potential purchasers should independently confirm the information of course!).  You can readily find this rate by starting as though you are going to renew any particular name using your favourite registrar site. I am glad that the newest significant ngTLD release, .icu, have standard renewal rates even on those that they are selling at premium initially. I hope that becomes standard across the ngTLD space.

Sensible Domain Investing and Costs

A big part of being successful in domain name investing, no matter the extensions you invest in, is to be quantitative and sensible in considering costs and likely returns.  Let's say that you can acquire a certain domain name for $25 initial cost, and the renewal cost in the extension is $5 per year.  If you reasonably estimate that you have 1 chance in 100 to sell it over a 5 year period for a price of $2000, then the investment does not make sense.  Your costs ($25 + 4 x $5 = $45 costs) multiplied by 100 is $4500.  But your anticipated price when you sell the domain is $2000, close, but not enough to make it a sensible investment unless you can improve either the price or the likelihood of making the sale. You should do an analysis such as this for every domain name in your portfolio.

Be Alert to Deals

I have not included the deals you can get on multi-year renewals if you know where to look, wait for the right deal, and shop around. I have renewed a .site for 5 years for $8.88 for the 5 years (not counting ICANN fees - I wish I had registered more at that rate, now gone), a .science for $5.88 (unfortunately no longer available), and you can occasionally register a .tech for 10 years for about $40.00 total. Sometimes I lock in renewal rates for the number of years if I expect to be holding the domain name for a long time because I both regard it as good and more valuable in future (e.g., emerging technology).  I have a number of domains registered for more than 5 years, and a few for 10 years.  Depending on the extension, 10 years is often the longest time you can renew a name. Lets all be smart about renewal costs!

Consider Registration Period

Those not in the domain name investing business often do not realize that, in general, when a domain name is transferred from one owner to another the registration transfers with it.  Let's say I bought a domain name and registered it until May of 2023 because my registrar offered a great deal on the multi-year registration and I wanted a number of years to try to sell it.  However, you bought it right off, and this extra registration now goes to you.  If you get the domain name at the same registrar, but now in your name, via a push, you won't even have to buy any extra registration time.  If you buy it through most resellers, or if the domain is transferred to your account at a different registrar, normally you will need to buy one extra year of registration when the name is transferred.  In this case you would pay one year of registration, but it would now be registered until  May of 2024. One advantage of purchasing domain names through  registrar marketplaces such as the Namecheap Marketplace, is that you will not have to purchase an extra year.  Make sure that you consider the registration period when deciding whether a price is appropriate.  I combine this and other tips from this post in the next section.

Tips

1. Always check whether a domain name has premium renewals before acquiring it. If you do acquire premium domains, take costs into account in estimating the anticipated ROI.
2. Use a resource like TLD-list to find the best current prices for registration, transfer and renewal on any domain name.
3. As well as lowest price, do pay attention to reviews of different registrars when choosing where to register. Sites like NamePros can help learn of experiences of others. Also, even if there is a differential price, it may not be worth your effort to use an additional registrar.
4. In both legacy and new extensions, renewal rates are only guaranteed for a limited period in future. If you feel you are likely going to hold a domain name for an extended period, either for development or domain investment, consider registering for multiple years.
5. The currently registered period normally transfers with the domain name.  Take this into account when considering the price of a domain name, both as a buyer and a seller.

Conclusions

For the vast majority of ngTLDs really being used and held as investments, renewal costs are competitive to legacy extensions, and more often than not actually less. While this is true for the vast majority of ngTLDs, do be alert to premium names in some extensions, and to extensions that have high renewal costs.  You can frequently find extra savings in multi-year registrations, or by shopping around registrars.  Look into the current registration period when buying and selling domain names.

Original post Aug 1, 2018
Minor format change (line spaces, illustrative image - no content change) Aug. 5, 2018.
With the changes in the costs of the former Famous Four extensions I have updated the renewal costs to values current to Aug 30,2018,  and altered text as appropriate. 

Links:

• NamePros link that triggered this study
• TLD-list (best prices on any extension)
• NameStat 
• nTLDs site (statistical data on new extensions)
• Our site NamesThat.win - please visit!
• Namecheap Marketplace
• Permanent link to this blog post

Fine Print

This post is offered for informational and educational purposes only, and should not be considered domain name investment advice. While an attempt has been made to be accurate, there is no implied or explicit warranty, and you are responsible for verifying any information of importance to you.

In a few cases there may be affiliate links will on this blog. This means I receive a small amount if users visit or make purchases via the link. You do not pay any additional charge due to using an affiliate link, and in some cases below the normal price. I receive no identifying information about who clicks, or does not click, any link. I never accept compensation to provide favourable review of any particular service or product.

I try to be fair, balanced and objective in my analysis.  If you feel this post does not meet that standard, please express your concerns to me.  As disclosure, I do have a domain portfolio that is predominantly ngTLD domain names, although I do also own a number of .com, .ca, .co and a few other country code extension domains..

The text of this posting is ©R.L. Hawkes, all rights reserved. However, you may, without permission, use reasonable length portions of the post as long as a link to this post is also provided. If you wish to use the complete contents of a post, please request permission. I am normally open to reprinting, but will consider each request individually. 

The images used are either those associated with a product or service, or Pixabay images believed to be available for use without attribution. If you see any image that you believe is problematic, please let us know and we will immediately correct the situation.